Games
Player props
How the numbers work
- Lines are Soccerbet's player props as last listed before tip-off. Lines and prices change during the day, and a market Soccerbet doesn't list isn't shown. The time each line was collected is at the bottom of every card. "N+" milestone lines are Over (N − 0.5) and have no Under price.
- History is every regular-season, play-in and playoff game from 2025-26 and 2026-27. The NBA comes from ESPN box scores and the EuroLeague from official EuroLeague box scores. Combined markets add up the stats of each game (PRA = points + rebounds + assists).
- Over / Under / Push compares each game with the selected line. A push is only possible on whole-number lines. Games a player missed (DNP, 0 minutes) never count. They stay in the log, greyed out.
- Matchup grade shows how much of this stat the opponent allows per game compared with the league average. It blends this season with 2025-26 until the season sample grows. A = gives up the most (good for the Over), F = gives up the least.
- Grade is a hit-rate score, weighted towards recent form: L5 35%, L10 30%, this season 20%, 2025-26 15%. The matchup moves it by up to about ±10 points. It's shown for the side with the higher score (Over or Under), and only once a player has 5+ games. It describes past results, not a guarantee. 18+, bet responsibly.
- Fair % is the bookmaker's Over/Under prices with the margin removed, for comparison.
- Model projection (the "Prediction breakdown" button) comes from a statistical model, not from an average of recent games. It first projects minutes, then the stat from his production per minute over the last 3, 5, 10, 15 and 20 games, this season and 2025-26. It also uses usage, the opponent's defence (team, and position in the NBA), pace and expected team points, the expected margin (blowout risk), regular teammates who are out, rest and back-to-backs, home/away and his history against the opponent. The result is a full distribution (negative binomial), so it gives the chance of Over, Under and Push for any line. A projection above the line doesn't automatically mean a high chance of the Over.
- Factors show how much each factor moves the projection, compared with a neutral value: his usual minutes, his longer-term per-minute level, an average opponent, a typical role, normal rest and no teammates out.
- Calibrated %: at bookmaker lines the raw model was too confident in the 2026-27 backtest, so the main-line probability is pulled back towards what actually happened in that backtest. No edge over the bookmakers has been shown. Treat the model as a second opinion, not a tip. 18+, bet responsibly.